Traditionally, Autumn is a fairly muted period for the property industry. However, with the recent base rate cut having provided a significant psychological boost for the market, a late-summer surge may well be on the horizon, according to some property experts.
This somewhat unprecedented 'Autumn bounce' - should it come to fruition - would owe most notably to the fact that mortgage rates are finally showing signs of heading downwards, as competition between the ‘big six’ lenders gathers pace.
The fact that inflation surged slightly by 0.2% - a rise that had been largely expected – is so far proving incidental, and underlines the much more measured, bigger-picture perspective that seems to be being adopted by the home-moving masses.
Currently, the mortgage rates being offered aren’t substantially lower than earlier this year (Nationwide currently has the lowest rate on 5-year-fixed-rate mortgages – 3.78% for a 60% LTV), but combined with other data and trends, it’s clearly enough to bolster home-mover sentiment, as demand currently sits 19% higher than the same time last year.
As for the wider factors and considerations driving this 'late surge', forecasters are particularly quick to weigh in on the impending 'October Statement', and the likelihood of capital gains tax changes under the new regime. As a result of this speculation, many landlords are bringing forward their asset sales, meaning that supply hasn’t necessarily been subject to the usual seasonal dip.
True to summer tradition, average asking prices of new properties were down 1.5% from last month, but the relevance of this dip is tempered, somewhat, by the news that Rightmove have revised their predictions for a 1% fall in house prices overall in 2024. The expectation now, is that new seller house prices will be 1% higher at the end of 2024, than they were in 2023.
This u-turn comes in part, as sellers are continuing to price their properties attractively, to entice today's pool of eager-to-move buyers. As well, changing work patterns (ie. the end of remote working and the ‘race for space’) are creating a new wave of necessity-based moves that didn't exist previously.
The effects of this can be felt most keenly in well-connected areas where, ironically, demand diminished during the lockdown era. According to this research, top of the list of modern-day home-moving priorities are transport links (74%) (up eight places from 14th in 2021 to sixth in 2024), with potential for extension and overall square footage proving much less of a draw.
This study marries up with findings from Zoopla, which indicate that 2 bed terraced properties were the fastest-selling between April and June this year.
This is a nuance of the nation's ever-evolving property preferences, which Braxton's homemover data is proving similarly suggestive of. In the team's expert experience, terraced properties such as this one in Powney Road have typically sold in less than the average timescales, and especially this year, against the backdrop of shifting priorities and easing affordability constraints.
This, in itself, should hopefully provide property sellers (and buyers) with a significant degree of confidence as we go into what is the last (but certainly not least!) of this year's selling seasons.
For more information on the local property market, or to register for property details, please contact Braxton on 01628 674234 or email property@braxtons.co.uk